美国人的好日子结束了英语美文

　　If history is a reliable guide, the recession of 2008 is now unavoidable.

美国人的好日子结束了英语美文

　　The dismal jobs report released Friday showed overall employment to be lower than it was three months ago. Every time such a slump has occurred since the early 1970s, a recession has followed — or already been under way.

　　And if the good times have really ended, they were never that good to begin with. Most American households are still not earning as much annually as they did in 1999, once inflation is taken into account. Since the Census Bureau began keeping records in the 1960s, a prolonged expansion has never ended without household income having set a new record.

　　For months, policy makers and Wall Street economists have been predicting, and hoping, that the aggressive series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would keep the economy growing, despite the housing bust. But the possibility seemed to diminish almost by the hour on Friday.

　　Shortly after 8 a.m., the Fed announced yet another measure meant to unlock the struggling credit markets. At 8:30, the Labor Department released the unexpectedly poor jobs report. Almost immediately, the economists at JPMorgan Chase — who only last week had told clients they thought the economy was still growing — reversed course and said a recession appeared to have started earlier this year.

　　Stocks fell when the markets opened at 9:30, recovered and then fell again, with the Standard & Poor 500-stock index closing down 0.8 percent. Traders became even more confident, based on the price of futures contracts, that the Fed would cut its benchmark interest rate three-quarters of a point, to 2.25 percent, when policy makers meet on March 18.

　　Even the one apparent piece of good news in the employment report was a mirage. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent, from 4.9 percent in January, but only because more people stopped looking for work and thus were not counted as unemployed by the government.

　　Over the last year, the number of officially unemployed has risen by 500,000, while the number of people outside the labor force — neither working nor looking for a job — has risen by 1.3 million.

　　The median household earned $48,201 in 2006, down from $49,244 in 1999, according to the Census Bureau. It now looks as if a full decade may pass before most Americans receive a raise.

　　如果历史是可靠的向导，那么，2008年的衰退就是不可避免的了。

　　星期五公布的令人失望的就业报告显示，总体就业率比3个月前有所下降。自从上个世纪70年代初以来，每次出现这样的下降，经济衰退就会随之而来，或者已经来到了。

　　如果好日子真的结束了，那么它们开始的时候根本就没那么好。如果把通货膨胀考虑在内，大多数美国家庭的年收入还不如1999年。自美国人口普查局在上个世纪60年代开始统计以来，从来没有一次持续的`经济增长结束时家庭收入不创新高的。

　　几个月来，政策制定者和华尔街的经济学家们一直在预测并希望尽管有房贷危机，但美联储一系列积极的降息措施能够使经济保持增长。但是星期五，这种可能性似乎减小了。

　　早上8点过后不久，美联储又宣布了另一项意在给挣扎中的信贷市场松绑的措施。8点30分，劳工部公布了意想不到的糟糕的就业情况报告。摩根大通银行的经济学家们几乎马上就改口说，衰退在今年更早些时候似乎已经开始了。而仅仅在上周，他们还在对客户说，他们认为经济仍然在增长。

　　9点30分股市开盘后先跌后反弹然后再跌。标准普尔500指数收盘时跌0.8%。根据期货合同的价格，交易商们更加相信政策制定者们在3月18日开会时，美联储会降3/4个百分点的基准利率至2.25%。

　　即使是就业报告中的一条明显的好消息也是虚幻的。失业率从1月份的4.9% 降到了4.8%，但这只是因为更多的人停止了找工作，因而没有被政府统计为失业。

　　去年，官方统计的失业人数增加了50万，而劳动力队伍以外的人数——那些既不工作也不找工作的人数增加了130万。

　　根据美国人口普查局的统计，2006年的平均家庭收入是48，201美元，而1999年是49，244美元。看起来似乎在整个10年过去之前，大多数美国人的收入将得不到提高。

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